Monday, April 7, 2008

Go Short?

Momentum was positive in the first half of today's trading and negative in the second half:



Potential reasons to short:
* We are very overbought, conditions that could lead to a severe snap back
* Two big retail names report Wednesday. Circuit City (CC) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) report before the market opens and after the close, respectively. I think this could be the spark that renews our downtrend.
* S&P 500 futures show us down 6 points from today's close currently
But posts like this make you think.
A note on my position size:
Today's trades were exactly that, trades. Considering that I should keep them a relatively low level of my capital base. 2% is a common number you see for how much of your equity you should use on each individual trade. I went 80% net long today. That would be OK if it were a longer term trade or an investment, but i think risking 80% of my capital on something I don't feel VERY strong about is needlessly piggish.