Monday, May 5, 2008

What I'm Thinking

A quick update:

Since we broke through the psychological barriers of 13,000 for the DOW and 1400-06 for the S&P 500 along with breaking through and closing above 200 dma's, I have closed out all of my short positions in U.S. equities.

I have kept my long Silver position. It is close to my review point and this time of the year is considered seasonally weak so I may close out this position as well. I haven't put down my thoughts yet on silver but long term I am extremely bullish on this play. I'll get to it in time.

Last week I put on a Fed Funds spread trade that basically makes money as long as the Fed doesn't raise rates by November. More on it later...

Tech stocks have been extremely strong lately. The chart looks bullish, money managers are optimistic, etc. etc. I have added some low-delta calls on the QQQQ. Will probably sell during this week.

I remain of the opinion that this is a sucker's rally. The VIX is signaling extreme complacency and I'm looking to setup a VIX trade in the near future to go long vol.