Greenspan: Repel the Calls to Contain Competitive Markets
Hussman Weekly Market Comment (Last Week)
Roubini Interview with Barrons
Fergusson: How a Local Squall Might Become a Global Tempest
The Four Part Series: The Big Freeze
Showing posts with label Linkfest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Linkfest. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
What I'm Reading
Judging by the US, the worst might be yet to come
The wrong tools to tackle inflation
JPM: Economy "Weak, likely to get weaker"
Welcome to the vacuum market
Edwards: Jail Eddie George and mervyn King. And Bernanke!
June Housing Starts
Cold-Eyed Review of a Red-Hot Rally
The Psychology of Selling
Merrill's Q2 - Worse than Expected
The wrong tools to tackle inflation
JPM: Economy "Weak, likely to get weaker"
Welcome to the vacuum market
Edwards: Jail Eddie George and mervyn King. And Bernanke!
June Housing Starts
Cold-Eyed Review of a Red-Hot Rally
The Psychology of Selling
Merrill's Q2 - Worse than Expected
What I'm Reading
Thoughts on Employment
Ballooning Commodities
Fannie and Freddie: Another bust for Shareholders
Are the Hunters Low on Magic Bullets?
Ballooning Commodities
Fannie and Freddie: Another bust for Shareholders
Are the Hunters Low on Magic Bullets?
El-Erian: Crisis and Coherence
US inflation is not going away anytime soon
Rogers: Fannie Plan a Disaster
Fed Holds its Breath on Inflation
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Friday, May 9, 2008
What I'm Reading
Is the Commodities Boom Driven by Speculation?
U.S. Leads Effort to Prop Up Dollar
Global Imbalances
Asian Bond Markets
That's about it for today. Did a lot of reading but nothing much that piqued my interest.
U.S. Leads Effort to Prop Up Dollar
Global Imbalances
Asian Bond Markets
That's about it for today. Did a lot of reading but nothing much that piqued my interest.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
What I'm Reading
All about the dollar
Recession Probabilities for the U.S.
All of Inflation's Little Charts
Worldwide Growth in Fertilizer Usage
Misleading Growth Statistics Give False Comfort
No silver lining as prices take a tumble
Global Long Term Interest Rates
Desperate Measures: India Closes Soybean Oil, Potatoes Exchanges to Fight Inflation
Sucker's Rally? - I think so..
Scale-up sells in the 1420-1440 range - I like this approach
A Rally with Serious Muscle
Recession Probabilities for the U.S.
All of Inflation's Little Charts
Worldwide Growth in Fertilizer Usage
Misleading Growth Statistics Give False Comfort
No silver lining as prices take a tumble
Global Long Term Interest Rates
Desperate Measures: India Closes Soybean Oil, Potatoes Exchanges to Fight Inflation
Sucker's Rally? - I think so..
Scale-up sells in the 1420-1440 range - I like this approach
A Rally with Serious Muscle
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
What I'm Reading & Thinking
Bond Investors Play a Waiting Game
Hoenig Says Inflation 'Serious' and may prompt rate rise
Hoenig Says Inflation 'Serious' and may prompt rate rise
Vallejo, CA officials vote to file for bankruptcy
The short view: Crunchy Credit
Yield of 4% Beckons in Treasurys
Seeing Inflation Only in the Prices that Go Up
Win Some, Lose Some - How to Come Out On Top
Cyclicals are Still Overpriced
Soros Says Impact of Crisis on Economy Just Starting
Home Improvement Investment has a Significant Downside Potential (Short HD?)
U.S. Consumer Debt Surges in March
Silver: Still dependent on gold for upside
Peruvian Miners set to strike May 12th. Silver should see benefits
World Silver Survey authors say silver outlook is still positive
Current Thoughts:
*Home Improvement Stocks look like good short candidates
* I really like how I'm positioned right now (short EUR/USD, long my FF future spread trade, and long Dec ED futures). I'm feeling a little less bullish on my SLV holding. Gold is tracking pretty closely to USD movements, especially EUR/USD.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
What I'm Reading
Medvedev Boxed In by Oil as Putin Bequeaths Economic "Dead End"
Fed Survey Shows More U.S. Banks Tighten Loan Terms
Updated Year-End S&P 500 Price Targets
Sales Tax Collections Decline in Most States
Jitters in the Eurozone
Will BofA-Countrywide Deal Get Done?
Economists Look for ECB Signal on Rates - I'm short EUR/USD but I doubt anything new will come out of this meeting
Shorting Puts - Interesting...
Commodity Prices in Historical Perspective
A little Yield Analysis
YoY NFP - A little different take
More on Earnings Expectations
Bulltrap: ABCP and Level 3 Bombs
Time for money market funds to help - Good article from FT that explains why "banks afraid to lend to other banks" is wrong
NYSE April Month End Short Interest
Some Signs of an Upturn for the Dollar
Disconnect
TED Spread is Improving
Housing Burst Duration
What's behind the Slide in Gold and Silver?
May 4th Got Gold Report - Money flows are increasing into SLV (current holding) as the price has declined
Dollar Demand is Strong Among European Banks
Brics offer investors a varied harvest
Wrong time to enter vulture business
Fed Survey Shows More U.S. Banks Tighten Loan Terms
Updated Year-End S&P 500 Price Targets
Sales Tax Collections Decline in Most States
Jitters in the Eurozone
Will BofA-Countrywide Deal Get Done?
Economists Look for ECB Signal on Rates - I'm short EUR/USD but I doubt anything new will come out of this meeting
Shorting Puts - Interesting...
Commodity Prices in Historical Perspective
A little Yield Analysis
YoY NFP - A little different take
More on Earnings Expectations
Bulltrap: ABCP and Level 3 Bombs
Time for money market funds to help - Good article from FT that explains why "banks afraid to lend to other banks" is wrong
NYSE April Month End Short Interest
Some Signs of an Upturn for the Dollar
Disconnect
TED Spread is Improving
Housing Burst Duration
What's behind the Slide in Gold and Silver?
May 4th Got Gold Report - Money flows are increasing into SLV (current holding) as the price has declined
Dollar Demand is Strong Among European Banks
Brics offer investors a varied harvest
Wrong time to enter vulture business
Monday, May 5, 2008
What I'm Reading
Hussman Weekly Market Comment
NYFR
Indicator Review for May 5th
Mark Kiesel: Slimming Down - I strongly agree with what this article has to say
What Uncle Sam Gives in Rebates, OPEC Takes
Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests
Departures May Change More Than the Look of ECB
Economists React: Jobs Report
Economists React: Fed Statement
Economists React: GDP
Non-Residential Investment: Still the Key
Q1 Sector EPS Growth vs. Estimates - Estimates were right on for the S&P according to BIG, but I'm not sure the date they used for the start of earnings season. Their figure is different from the one I cited in my inital post on earnings.
NYFR
Indicator Review for May 5th
Mark Kiesel: Slimming Down - I strongly agree with what this article has to say
What Uncle Sam Gives in Rebates, OPEC Takes
Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests
Departures May Change More Than the Look of ECB
Economists React: Jobs Report
Economists React: Fed Statement
Economists React: GDP
Non-Residential Investment: Still the Key
Q1 Sector EPS Growth vs. Estimates - Estimates were right on for the S&P according to BIG, but I'm not sure the date they used for the start of earnings season. Their figure is different from the one I cited in my inital post on earnings.
Caroline Baum: Wall Street CEO Chorus is Singing Out of Tune
What are corporate bonds worth in a recession? (Spreads Have Further to Tighten)
Slow German Growth Sounds Poverty Alert
Weyerhaeuser's Loss - WY is on my value watch list
Tentacles of Recession and the Great Unwind
John Authers: Uncertainty in markets
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
What I'm Reading
Hussman's Weekly Market Comment
The Fertilizer Commodity Bubble
Silver Prices to Resume Rally in Late 2008, early 2009
And More Here
The Real Impact of De-Leveraging
Is the Credit Crisis Really Over? Minsky Would Say No
Accelerating Housing Declines
The Collapse of Monetarism and the Irrelevance of the New Monetary Consensus
Brazilian Stocks on Fire
Low Spending is Taking Toll on Economy
How Long Can the Rally Run?
Ten Things Everyone Should Know about the VIX
The Fertilizer Commodity Bubble
Silver Prices to Resume Rally in Late 2008, early 2009
And More Here
The Real Impact of De-Leveraging
Is the Credit Crisis Really Over? Minsky Would Say No
Accelerating Housing Declines
The Collapse of Monetarism and the Irrelevance of the New Monetary Consensus
Brazilian Stocks on Fire
Low Spending is Taking Toll on Economy
How Long Can the Rally Run?
Ten Things Everyone Should Know about the VIX
What I'm Reading & Thinking
Europe's economic slowdown to continue - I can't imagine trying to predict the growth rate for 27 countries. Just 1 is hard enough.
Fed set for further cut in rates
View of the Day - Ian Scott, Lehman Brothers
Safety dash into bonds brought to abrupt end
Wrigley Mars Deal in Depth - 32 x forward earnings and 20 x ebitda seems darn pricey to me
Soaring Rice Prices Send Asian Nations Scrambling
Is the Work of Fed Bankers Really Done?
DB Chief Energy Economist: Oil to $250, then demand collapse
Barron's Big Money institutional survey - Quite telling. I find myself in disagreement with many of these big time money managers. As one commentator put it, "many of these guys appear to be trading the rally before we've experienced the recession." I agree.
Bill Gross' May Investment Outlook - "Home prices and their real economic fallout are the financial markets – and PIMCO’s – vulnerable flank." I'm glad I'm on similar terms. I have taken a side on this issue and feel that falling home prices will lead to economic fallout in consumer spending and corporate profits. Indeed, these two indicators have already topped out. This is basically the core of my domestic outlook for equities. And to continue, I think that this is our endgame:
"To be brief and blunt, the reason that home prices are so critical, he would claim, is that they are at the forefront of potential asset deflation. Because the U.S. and selected other economies are now substantially asset-based and dependent on stable and upward tilting prices, a deflation of an economy’s primary financial asset can be ruinous. Its deflationary thrust must be countered, wrote Minsky, or else the battle might be lost. If so, the real economy as Mohamed El-Erian suggests, might become so shell-shocked that financial markets once again turn down instead of up."
I don't necessarily think that we will have a long-term deflationary problem like Japan. But I think it's likely declining home prices will lead to slower consumer spending, the great "muddle-through" economy combined with the great unwind in leverage, and lower financial asset prices as a result. My short equity bias remains as long as I view earnings expectations to be overly optimistic. Currently I view Q3-Q4 as wildly optimistic. I'm less inclined to believe Q2 will be greatly below expectations because of the effects of the stimulus checks. Even that argument contains less merit as oil continues to hover around $120 and gas remains around $3.60/gallon.
Fed set for further cut in rates
View of the Day - Ian Scott, Lehman Brothers
Safety dash into bonds brought to abrupt end
Wrigley Mars Deal in Depth - 32 x forward earnings and 20 x ebitda seems darn pricey to me
Soaring Rice Prices Send Asian Nations Scrambling
Is the Work of Fed Bankers Really Done?
DB Chief Energy Economist: Oil to $250, then demand collapse
Barron's Big Money institutional survey - Quite telling. I find myself in disagreement with many of these big time money managers. As one commentator put it, "many of these guys appear to be trading the rally before we've experienced the recession." I agree.
Bill Gross' May Investment Outlook - "Home prices and their real economic fallout are the financial markets – and PIMCO’s – vulnerable flank." I'm glad I'm on similar terms. I have taken a side on this issue and feel that falling home prices will lead to economic fallout in consumer spending and corporate profits. Indeed, these two indicators have already topped out. This is basically the core of my domestic outlook for equities. And to continue, I think that this is our endgame:
"To be brief and blunt, the reason that home prices are so critical, he would claim, is that they are at the forefront of potential asset deflation. Because the U.S. and selected other economies are now substantially asset-based and dependent on stable and upward tilting prices, a deflation of an economy’s primary financial asset can be ruinous. Its deflationary thrust must be countered, wrote Minsky, or else the battle might be lost. If so, the real economy as Mohamed El-Erian suggests, might become so shell-shocked that financial markets once again turn down instead of up."
I don't necessarily think that we will have a long-term deflationary problem like Japan. But I think it's likely declining home prices will lead to slower consumer spending, the great "muddle-through" economy combined with the great unwind in leverage, and lower financial asset prices as a result. My short equity bias remains as long as I view earnings expectations to be overly optimistic. Currently I view Q3-Q4 as wildly optimistic. I'm less inclined to believe Q2 will be greatly below expectations because of the effects of the stimulus checks. Even that argument contains less merit as oil continues to hover around $120 and gas remains around $3.60/gallon.
The chart above is Corporate Profits as a % of GDP. When I mentioned above that corporate profits have topped out this is some of the data that helped me come that decision. And this is one of my strongest arguments for why earnings expectations are too high for the latter half of this year. In the Barron's Big Money institutional poll all the bulls were pointing to low P/E's. 55% thought stocks were undervalued. I come to the conclusion that with normalized corporate profits stocks are overvalued. The chart says it all. We are at the highest level of corporate profits since the 60's. And with consumer spending (and leverage in recent years) being the primary driver of corporate profits, do I think these elevated levels are likely to stabilize and continue?
I find this unlikely. The chart above (via John Mauldin) makes me think that we have probably topped out in consumer spending as well. The negative wealth effect, stagnant wages, and higher commodity costs all add to the consumer's pain. The economy was essentially fueled in 2002 to 2007 by leverage and HEW's as consumer's thought housing prices would increase forever. HEW's have dried up and as BofA noted in the earning's calls, we have seen rising credit card delinquencies (especially in housing bubble areas). As Bud Fox said, "I'm tapped out Marv. American Express has got a hitman looking for me."
I have to be wary here about confusing my economic outlook with my market outlook. While ultimately the economics are the underlying factor, the great bull party may continue for a little while longer. I am prepared and will position the portfolio accordingly. Opportunities abound in this market and I am confident I'll be able to take advantage of them.
Monday, April 28, 2008
What I'm Reading
Waiting Game Begins on Rebates
Global Adjustment Will be Long and Painful
The State of Credit
U.S. Home Vacancies Rise to Record on Foreclosures
Tech Tonic
Small Banks Under Threat in US
Steel price nearly doubles in a year - I'm tempted to say that this bull has not yet run its course but I'm entirely uninformed about the market
Jim Rogers is Buying China Again
Morgan Stanley: US Banks Earnings to Fall 26% in '08 and 15% in '09
USD Hits 2-month High Against Yen
Silver fundamentals seen as poor which makes price vulnerable
Rise of Nationalism Frays Global Ties
South Korea's Growth is Likely to Slow More
Japan's Inflation: Bad Timing
The Dollar Rebound: Is It for Real?
No bubbles, Just fundamentals
Global Adjustment Will be Long and Painful
The State of Credit
U.S. Home Vacancies Rise to Record on Foreclosures
Tech Tonic
Small Banks Under Threat in US
Steel price nearly doubles in a year - I'm tempted to say that this bull has not yet run its course but I'm entirely uninformed about the market
Jim Rogers is Buying China Again
Morgan Stanley: US Banks Earnings to Fall 26% in '08 and 15% in '09
USD Hits 2-month High Against Yen
Silver fundamentals seen as poor which makes price vulnerable
Rise of Nationalism Frays Global Ties
South Korea's Growth is Likely to Slow More
Japan's Inflation: Bad Timing
The Dollar Rebound: Is It for Real?
No bubbles, Just fundamentals
Sunday, April 27, 2008
What I'm Reading
Even the great investors get the right bets wrong
Massive JGB Selloff
El-Erian: Why this crisis is still far from finished
Japanese Stocks Cheap?
Learning from Amex
Counterparty Risk in the Commodity Market
If Tech Companies Are Beating Earnings, Why Isn't NASDAQ Breadth Improving?
This Bear Growls On
Jeremy Grantham Q1 Letter
Why Haven't Existing Home Sales Fallen Further?
Pimco's European Perspectives: Haven't We Been Here Before?
Massive JGB Selloff
El-Erian: Why this crisis is still far from finished
Japanese Stocks Cheap?
Learning from Amex
Counterparty Risk in the Commodity Market
If Tech Companies Are Beating Earnings, Why Isn't NASDAQ Breadth Improving?
This Bear Growls On
Jeremy Grantham Q1 Letter
Why Haven't Existing Home Sales Fallen Further?
Pimco's European Perspectives: Haven't We Been Here Before?
Friday, April 25, 2008
What I'm Reading
U.K. Economy Expands at Slowest Pace in Three Years
Ukraine had 26% YoY inflation last month
China Price to Drive - As oil has been hovering around 120 I have seen several articles or research reports that talk about the effects of price controls in many oil producing and asian economies. In places like China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela governments subsidize gas prices. This allows fuel consumers in these nations to not pare back consumption, an upward pressure on global market price.
Commercial and Industrial Loans Near Record Levels
US Regulator Fears Wave of Bank Failures
The Good News About the Housing Bust
Expectations for the Fed Meeting
Business Bankruptcies Rose 43% in 2007
Value in the Front End of the Yield Curve?
An Endgame for the Euro?
Goldman: More Pain for Monolines
Odd Numbers
Ukraine had 26% YoY inflation last month
China Price to Drive - As oil has been hovering around 120 I have seen several articles or research reports that talk about the effects of price controls in many oil producing and asian economies. In places like China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela governments subsidize gas prices. This allows fuel consumers in these nations to not pare back consumption, an upward pressure on global market price.
Commercial and Industrial Loans Near Record Levels
US Regulator Fears Wave of Bank Failures
The Good News About the Housing Bust
Expectations for the Fed Meeting
Business Bankruptcies Rose 43% in 2007
Value in the Front End of the Yield Curve?
An Endgame for the Euro?
Goldman: More Pain for Monolines
Odd Numbers
Thursday, April 24, 2008
What I'm Reading
Bondholders Lucky to Get 10 Cents in Looming Defaults
Recession? It Doesn't Add Up
Target March Creit-Card Charge-offs Annualized 8.1% - There is a picture here getting clearer and clearer with each earnings report that credit card delinquences are rising and consumers are getting tapped out. The BofA earnings call detailed how credit card losses were up sharply in areas affected by declining housing prices. It's a consumer-led recession (something we have not seen in 25 years).
Tracking NAR Spin
Anemic Global CDO Issuance in 2008-Q1
Disastrous New Home Sales
U.S. Sector P/E Ratios (High)
The 800 Pound Gorilla on Consumer's Backs
Economic Releases (Not too shabby)
Recession? It Doesn't Add Up
Target March Creit-Card Charge-offs Annualized 8.1% - There is a picture here getting clearer and clearer with each earnings report that credit card delinquences are rising and consumers are getting tapped out. The BofA earnings call detailed how credit card losses were up sharply in areas affected by declining housing prices. It's a consumer-led recession (something we have not seen in 25 years).
Tracking NAR Spin
Anemic Global CDO Issuance in 2008-Q1
Disastrous New Home Sales
U.S. Sector P/E Ratios (High)
The 800 Pound Gorilla on Consumer's Backs
Economic Releases (Not too shabby)
EUR/USD has fallen 3 big figures in the past 2 days (Just in time for my long EUR/USD post)
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
What I'm Reading
In the Eye of the Housing Hurricane
Bonds are Back in the Game
Earnings Beat Rates
Bonds are Back in the Game
Earnings Beat Rates
A Nice Quick Update on Housing - Peak to trough I think housing prices will fall 25% - 30%
More on March Existing Home Inventory
Japanese Banks Step up their Lending
Banks to Pay Steep Cost in BOE Plan
Economic Recovery Already Underway - I think I may just have to come back to this post in a year or so for humor
Monday, April 21, 2008
What I'm Reading
Mortgage Rates on the Rise
Trading Radar for this Upcoming Week
Israel seeks to become finance hub
Q1 Earnings Growth Results With 20% Reported - It appears I am very right so far about worse than expected earnings but I've been wrong on the market's reaction
BofA Fails to Meet Expectations - ``We remain concerned about the health of the consumer given the prolonged housing slump, subprime issues, employment levels and higher fuel and food prices,'' - CEO Ken Lewis
Historical S&P Performance after Strong Breadth - A Study done in Tradestation. I'm curious how people do studies like this. I'd enjoy adding it to my repetoir
Delinquencies Rise on HEL
BofE Announces their version of the TSLF
Trading Radar for this Upcoming Week
Israel seeks to become finance hub
Q1 Earnings Growth Results With 20% Reported - It appears I am very right so far about worse than expected earnings but I've been wrong on the market's reaction
BofA Fails to Meet Expectations - ``We remain concerned about the health of the consumer given the prolonged housing slump, subprime issues, employment levels and higher fuel and food prices,'' - CEO Ken Lewis
Historical S&P Performance after Strong Breadth - A Study done in Tradestation. I'm curious how people do studies like this. I'd enjoy adding it to my repetoir
Delinquencies Rise on HEL
BofE Announces their version of the TSLF
Thursday, April 17, 2008
What I'm Reading
The Worst May Be Over, but...
Beige Book: Economy Slowing, Prices Rising - I'm pretty much in the camp now that the Fed's actions to abate the credit crisis were extremely inflationary. My current outlook is inflationary, but my long-term outlook remains that the bursting of the housing buble is a largely deflationary phenomenon.
Simply.. a MUST Read
Where the Smart Money is
Value Maybe?
Beige Book: Economy Slowing, Prices Rising - I'm pretty much in the camp now that the Fed's actions to abate the credit crisis were extremely inflationary. My current outlook is inflationary, but my long-term outlook remains that the bursting of the housing buble is a largely deflationary phenomenon.
Simply.. a MUST Read
Where the Smart Money is
Value Maybe?
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
What I'm Reading
Yellen: House Price Declines Best Predictor of Delinquency Rates
Single Family Housing Starts Lowest Since Jan '91
CPI Meets Expectations
EUR/USD at Record High
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged at Near Record Lows
The Clock is Ticking
Home Forclosures Jump 57% YoY in March
WSJ MarketBeat Credit Report
Credit Card Charge-Offs & Delinquency Rates
Goldman: Expect Awful Profits (The main reason I've been short)
US vs. Europe EPS Growth Rate Estimates
Housing Woes Around the Globe
Industrial Production Not too Shabby
Oil and the Great Moderation
10 Reasons to Like U.S. Equities
12 Wall Street Classics for 2008
Macro Man: A funny thing happened on the way to the rally
Banks That Misquote Libor will be Banned
JPMorgan: Conference Call Comments
Single Family Housing Starts Lowest Since Jan '91
CPI Meets Expectations
EUR/USD at Record High
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged at Near Record Lows
The Clock is Ticking
Home Forclosures Jump 57% YoY in March
WSJ MarketBeat Credit Report
Credit Card Charge-Offs & Delinquency Rates
Goldman: Expect Awful Profits (The main reason I've been short)
US vs. Europe EPS Growth Rate Estimates
Housing Woes Around the Globe
Industrial Production Not too Shabby
Oil and the Great Moderation
10 Reasons to Like U.S. Equities
12 Wall Street Classics for 2008
Macro Man: A funny thing happened on the way to the rally
Banks That Misquote Libor will be Banned
JPMorgan: Conference Call Comments
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